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Turkish general election 2015; Coverage of the election, in particular to the HDP and the Kurdish region
Topic Started: Jun 8 15, 1:21 (43,616 Views)
Qandil
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Election over: HDP passing the treshold with 13,12% (6.051.469) votes and securing 80 seats in the parliament!

This election was historic for the Kurdish cause in Bakûr. I congratulate HDP, Öcalan and all Kurdistanis.

This topic will still be open for discussion about the future of the HDP. People can still discuss the results as well as discussing possible scenarios of coalition governments. Anything related can still be posted here and can be used for references!

Posts:

How are the votes counted?

Magic numbers - how many seats AKP needed

Minorities

Election winners in diaspora

Kurdistani provinces that were lost

Unexpected or controversial Kurdistani provinces that were won

The man behind HDP

End post

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Turkish general election 2015

This topic will aim to cover the election, particularly with focus on the HDP and the Kurdish region.

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Background

This election will elect 550 members of the Grand National Assembly, which will rule Turkey for the next four years.

In Turkish elections, parties below the treshold loses all their votes to the party with second biggest votes in respective provinces. This is why it is important for HDP to win! We no longer have independent MPs, we're betting our political future on the HDP!

The four significant parties are:


  • AKP: Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (Justice and Development Party)
  • CHP: Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (Republican People's Party)
  • MHP: Milliyetci Hareket Partisi (Nationalist Movement Party)
  • HDP: Halklaring Demokratik Partisi (Peoples' Democratic Party)

AKP

AKP has been in power for 12 years now. They're expected to still hit 40% of the votes. Despite the political mistakes (fraud, stealing money, Gezi park), they're still a strong party, due to attracting religious voters in Central Anatolia.

AKP will try to aim for 276 seats, which are needed for majority. AKP wants a presidential system over republic, which means Erdogan can bascially do anything he wants.

CHP

Party formed by Atatûrk, secular & nationalist party. They've massacred Kurds, so there's not much to say about this party. Expected to be have votes around 25% - 35%

MHP

Dogs. Nationalist party and have actually been in a coalition with AKP in the past. Expected 15% - 20%.

HDP

Our party which will be looking at the most. Representation of Kurds and some secular Turks. Expected to pass 10% despite election rigging.

Election results in 3 scenarios

If HDP does not pass treshold:

AKP gets +50% of the votes (all HDP votes too). AKP is likely to make a referendum for presidential system. This would make Kurds politically, mildly said, screwed.

This will allow AKP:

- To make a referendum on constitutional changes, although 330 seats are needed for this. They'll probably work with MHP to get this. If HDP does not pass, we can not write a constitution together with AKP and our political future is screwed.

- To unilaterally change the constitution, although 367 seats are needed for this. AKP can then basically give the middle finger to all parties.

If HDP does pass treshold:

AKP still gets averagely 40% of the votes, but AKP would then need to get 276 seats for a one-party government. This is why opposition parties are also talking about coalition governments. And this, which I dislike: fascists actually voting for HDP, to minimize AKP chances of ruling Turkey alone.

If HDP passes the treshold, but AKP gets below 40% of the votes:

Coalition governments. Any coalition can be made:

- AKP-HDP (which I doubt)
- CHP-HDP (Demirtas said it is possible, but personally I don't like it)
- CHP + MHP (if they get enough votes, but I doubt that)
- Even CHP + MHP + HDP is possible (please, no!).

What to pay attention to in this election?

- The 10%!!! This is the amount of votes HDP must receive to enter the parliament. If we lose, AKP gets all our votes, which means AKP will get above 50%, and we will be screwed politically! AKP can ignore all parties and make a government without a coalition. If we pass, AKP are likely to make a coalition, which we will probably not join, because we'd lose a lot of votes if we do. But our conditions will definitely be something Turks won't like: Apo getting free pls. :D

- 330 seats. The number of seats the AKP must win to make a referendum on constitutional changes.

- 367 seats. The number of seats the AKP must win to unilaterally change the constitution.

Topic

Post all news related to the election here. Pictures, videos, election rigging, whatever it is, post it here. I'll post election results later. I'll keep you all updated in this topic.

Info gained from Wikipedia, Reddit threads and various other sites. If requested, I'll give links.
Edited by Qandil, Jun 8 15, 11:02.
"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Qandil
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Post your predictions

Post your predictions of the results.

Mine:

AKP: 38-39%

CHP: 28-30%

MHP: 17-18%

HDP: 11-12% (if rigging is a lot, we might just get 10%)
Edited by Qandil, Jun 8 15, 2:13.
"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Qandil
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How are the votes counted?

How are the votes counted, by Mike.

Quote:
 
Let's begin, with a little over half an hour before voting ends, with an important question from De Paul University associate professor Erik Tillman:

The answer is both. As soon as possible after 5pm - that is, after anyone left in the queue has voted - the box is opened and the votes inside counted in the presence of any observers who choose to stick around.

The votes are counted individually and out loud. A declaration detailing the election result at that ballot box is drawn up and signed by everyone present.

All the ballots are then put back into the ballot box, which is then sealed and taken to the regional counting centre, escorted by political party representatives. It is then reopened and counted once again there, and the results are input into the Electoral Commission's SEÇSİS computer system.

It is at this stage, as the votes are input into the system by hand, that many people - particularly among opposition parties - fear discrepancies can emerge.

"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Qandil
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Our handsome president, Demirtas, casting his vote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMpcikK7QM8

Pictures:

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"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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AlanJunior
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Liberal

My prediction: HDP will be kingmakers. Either that or they will declare a Kurdish parliament in Amed. I am hoping for the latter.
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Qandil
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Co-president, Figen Yksekdag, casting her vote:

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"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Qandil
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130 year old man voted for HDP (RojNews says 130 years old, is that even humanly possible?):

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"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Qandil
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115 year old women voted for HDP:

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"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Qandil
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Election observers getting beaten up (credit to Fire):

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"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Qandil
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AKP MP candidate, Mustafa Şahin, threathen election official in Malatya (credit to Zagros):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_T-CrijtZXk
"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Qandil
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Victims of Amed bombing goes to polling stations to vote for HDP!

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"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Qandil
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YPG and Rojava with HDP:

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"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Deleted User
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hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Rudaw sources: Based on 5% vote counts-- ‪#‎AKP‬ 56%, ‪#‎CHP‬ 19%, ‪#‎MHP‬ 19%, ‪#‎HDP‬ 7%. ‪#‎Turkishelections‬
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Qandil
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Another HDP observer attacked by AKP members in Urfa. Osman Baydemir consoling him at hospital:

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"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Qandil
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Alright, that was all known information.

The counting has started, follow me below!
"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Qandil
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Posted Image
"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Qandil
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There's a lot of buzz on Twitter at the moment about a series of suspicious cars, without any number plates, parkled outside polling stations in Istanbul:

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The claim is that these vehicles, difficult to trace, could be ferrying fraudulent ballot papers - and some social media users are claiming just that.

Some are even encouraging people to slash the tyres of these unmarked vehicles:

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There were even some cars like those in Bakûr!

Source: http://www.24liveblog.com/share/192407356?url=http://www.jamesinturkey.com/live-turkey-votes-2015/[R4E]Fixed images.[/R4E]
Edited by Qandil, Jun 8 15, 2:28.
"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Qandil
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Posted Image
"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Deleted User
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This is good website http://onedio.com/haber/yarin-54-milyon-secmen-sandik-basina-gidecek-522130
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Qandil
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Turnout is reported to be high and above 80%!
"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Qandil
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Posted Image
"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Qandil
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This picture shows what I meant in the first post about seats, and Turkey's possible future depending on how many seats AKP wins.

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"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Qandil
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HDP votes found torn in trash cans in Amed:

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"Kurdino! Bibin yek; eger hûn nebin yek, hûn ê herin yek bi yek." - Cigerxwîn.
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Tevger
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According to one poll ( Anadolu) HDP has 11,8% of the votes so far ( 30% counted votes). According to another poll (China) HDP only has 8.5%.
'' Don't touch me doctor! My death is necessary for the Kurds to wake up''
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Brendar
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Tevger
Jun 8 15, 2:45
According to one poll ( Anadolu) HDP has 11,8% of the votes so far ( 30% counted votes). According to another poll (China) HDP only has 8.5%.
Link?
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